IN CINA COMUNICAZIONI RADIO AD ONDE CORTE DISTURBATE O INTERROTTE MENTRE PER LA STAMPA ANCHE IL BRITISH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AVREBBE LANCIATO AVVERTIMENTI SU POSSIBILI E ANALOGHI PROBLEMI ALLE COMUNICAZIONI SATELLITARI. MA LA "CMA" CINESE NON NE PARLA E IL CENTRO BRITANNICO NEMMENO
Di Mattia Paolinelli
Tutto parte a cavallo tra il 14 e il 15 febbraio, quando sul Sole -a seguito di alcuni eventi di classe minore- è possibile osservare un flare “X2.2”: il primo dal dicembre del 2006 e il più potente mai registrato nel ciclo solare 24.
A differenza dell’ingiustificato allarme lanciato lo scorso anno da alcuni organi d’informazione , questo flare è effettivamente in grado di provocare potenzialmente alcune spiacevoli conseguenze on our planet, like the blackout of radio transmissions and magnetic storms of long duration.
But in reality, even in the case of a flare of class "X" this cause-effect relationship is not so obvious: the emission of solar material that followed the blast they have to be directed to our planet to determine the effects described above, and this happens rarely.
And in this case? Well, yes: the material released by the most powerful flare in 2006 was actually directed at us by a way that would dovuto incrociare -secondo le previsioni- la nostra orbita tra il 16 e il 17 febbraio. Più precisamente, le prime stime indicavano il 16 febbraio, attorno alle “10.30 p.m. EST”. Questa l’opinione degli scienziati della NASA che hanno monitorato l’evento in costante diretta.
Grazie al sito dell’ente spaziale americano infatti non solo è stato possibile osservare il flare lo stesso giorno in cui si è originato (ricordiamolo: il 14 febbraio, alle 8.56 p.m. EST), ma anche avere notizia che il momento dell’incrocio con la nostra orbita stava man mano slittando di un giorno -dal 16 al 17 appunto- e che l'impulso he was carrying the cloud of material emitted in response to blasting was losing its strength very quickly. The possible consequences for our planet would then be limited to beautiful auroras, the prerogative of the latitudes near the poles.
But here always between 16 and 17 February bouncing around the Web for news on the formation of a strong magnetic storm at the China that would have greatly disrupted radio communications short-wave in Asian countries and even threatened to interrupt satellite communications and blow up power lines.
This was a real danger ? And we really on the face of evidence of interference to radio communications in China? But first let us ask ourselves: where is playing the news?
From China obviously but only two heads of the largest to have dealt with the case are Renmin Ribao (People's Daily) and China Daily , already known to readers of Nautilus for the grotesque fairy tale about "terrorist monkeys" .
On Renmin Ribao the news is done only in a video which unfortunately is not viewable (would, however little, unless you know the Chinese). The China Daily instead covers the topic with interest (as with the flare of August 4 last year) devoted three articles.
am especially those first two that concern us and for various reasons. First, eye on the date of publication. Both date back to February 16 but the first was published at 6:39
while the second is of 7:15. Also worth noting is the fact that while the first resume news news agency Xinhua, the second is made by Lin Shujuan, a journalist of the China Daily
The difference between the two pieces is also evident in the different depth of news also leads to a correction of the shot in some data certainly not marginal. Take for example the final two articles. The first states:
"The space weather monitoring center Said That there is a high probability large solar flares will Appear in the next three days."
So in this case is likely to announce new major flares for the next three days.
This is the conclusion of the piece instead of Lin Shujuan:
"More Such eruptions, even more intense - either from the examination solar hotspot or from others - are expected in the coming year or two, "Bao said.
Quite a difference between two-three days and one or two years. But to speak are two different entities. In the first article we rely on CMA (China Meteorological Administration) . In the second, the NAOCAS (National Astronomical Observatories of the Chinese Academy of Sciences).
But something seems to come back. The first article, while referring to the CMA and in particular to the researcher Xue Bingsen reports no quotes. There is talk of a "CMA statement" , but which one? I also remember that between the two this is the only article to mention the magnetic storm evidently already in place, the problems occurred in the short-wave radio communications and to envisage new flares quickly.
The second article relies instead on NAOCAS and in particular to the words dell'eliofisico Xingming Bao. Perhaps needless to say, in this case the inverted commas are all right and explain quite clearly what the real or perceived dangers of the solar flares.
Besides the already NASA had failed to inform the weakness with which the material ejected from the Sun would reach the Earth (as specified at the beginning of article) avoiding any consequence that was not the appearance of spectacular auroras. So what enters the "dangers" raised by certain titles online? That the consequences of the flare have been deliberately exaggerated? It would not be the first time, indeed: we've been right on Nautilus dealt with a case very, very similar . Since going to check the sources, the statements by the CMA on issues shortwave radio communications are not, I decided to do a little checking on the site also NSMC (National Satellite Meteorological Center) on the outcome of which I will keep you informed. But the results another test I can already tell you everything.
These days had been brought up a possible danger to-satellite communications and GPS systems-and then to support this theory, many newspapers had reported phantom alarms from the British Geological Survey in this regard. It 's the truth? Absolutely not. The BGS has told you of the arrival of a magnetic storm triggered by the issue of material caused by the flare, but confirmed in full the position of NASA on the weakness of this "wave" to direct our planet.
Regarding this matter, two elements of the BGS website are of great value. The first is the Space Weather Alert of 15 February :
The second, the Space Weather Update of 18 February :
To Incidentally, the "Interplanetary shock wave eventually reaches the Earth's magnetic field not the Mennen 16 and 17, but only on February 18. And this information sheds more than a few shadows on the actual possibility of a problem with short-wave radio communications for February 16, at which date back to the two articles in the China Daily and Xinhua in particular that based on the agency.
For the moment, however, can only be sure that someone has lied beautifully easy sensationalism about the alerts for the BGS (which refer only to northern lights) and that many have gone to those lies behind wheel without verifying the nature of the notices.
Yet there was no need to add undue alarm because the news had already been an incredible valore, eccolo:
Basta guardare queste straordinarie immagini e pensare che la più minuscola macchia di colore di quel Sole è grande quanto il nostro pianeta per rimanere a bocca aperta nel vedere una fessura di luce -così incommensurabile rispetto al nostro mondo- esplodere quasi dovesse creare un’altra stella. Uno splendido esempio insieme della meraviglia e del terrore che sa originare il cosmo. Ed è sufficiente, senza inventare ulteriori pericoli o mostri.
AGGIORNAMENTO 23/02/2011
Avevo parlato di un'altra NSMC on site verification and I promised to keep you informed. It 's time to keep the promise. We tracked down their Xue Bingsen, the Xinhua news agency quoted helium physics.
In "Solar flare disturbs S China's shortwave radio" it was stated that:
"Xue Bingsen, a researcher with the center, the solar flare Said Caused Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances in the atmosphere above China and affected shortwave radio communications, According To a CMA statement. "
I asked via email Bingsen at first what had actually happened in China following a solar flare, and if the article dicesse il vero sulle sue affermazioni. Ho inoltre chiesto quale fosse quello "statement" della CMA citato sempre nell'articolo dell'agenzia Xinhua.
Xue Bingsen molto gentilmente mi ha risposto e ha deciso di spiegarci come sono andate le cose:
In February 15th, when the X2.2 flare occured, the ionosphere at about 90km electron density increased together with the surge of flare and the absorption of short wave rose sharply which would attenuate the signal, even cutoff the short wave. While the flare occured in the day time of China, the SW communication of china should surely be significantly affected according our experience. But we do not recieved report of the effect of this event.
The flare accompany a coronal mass ejection(CME), and the CME arrived the earth in early 18th and caused minor geomagnetic storm.
As for the statement of CMA, I think the writer must refer to the report and article from CMA, but in chinese.
Xue Bingsen
Dunque si, i problemi alle onde corte dovrebbero esserci stati (sebbene Bingsen non abbia avuto rapporti sull'effettivo verificarsi del fenomeno) perché questa è la norma in simili cases. The "statement" instead was probably taken from an article in Chinese and this is not in the international version of the CMA's website.
The other is that confirms there has been no "giant magnetic storm", but only a "minor Geomagnetic storm. Nothing to worry about and thus nothing that could cause malfunction of satellites, GPS systems or power grids. And that's all.
AGGIORNAMENTO 23/02/2011
Avevo parlato di un'altra NSMC on site verification and I promised to keep you informed. It 's time to keep the promise. We tracked down their Xue Bingsen, the Xinhua news agency quoted helium physics.
In "Solar flare disturbs S China's shortwave radio" it was stated that:
"Xue Bingsen, a researcher with the center, the solar flare Said Caused Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances in the atmosphere above China and affected shortwave radio communications, According To a CMA statement. "
I asked via email Bingsen at first what had actually happened in China following a solar flare, and if the article dicesse il vero sulle sue affermazioni. Ho inoltre chiesto quale fosse quello "statement" della CMA citato sempre nell'articolo dell'agenzia Xinhua.
Xue Bingsen molto gentilmente mi ha risposto e ha deciso di spiegarci come sono andate le cose:
In February 15th, when the X2.2 flare occured, the ionosphere at about 90km electron density increased together with the surge of flare and the absorption of short wave rose sharply which would attenuate the signal, even cutoff the short wave. While the flare occured in the day time of China, the SW communication of china should surely be significantly affected according our experience. But we do not recieved report of the effect of this event.
The flare accompany a coronal mass ejection(CME), and the CME arrived the earth in early 18th and caused minor geomagnetic storm.
As for the statement of CMA, I think the writer must refer to the report and article from CMA, but in chinese.
Xue Bingsen
Dunque si, i problemi alle onde corte dovrebbero esserci stati (sebbene Bingsen non abbia avuto rapporti sull'effettivo verificarsi del fenomeno) perché questa è la norma in simili cases. The "statement" instead was probably taken from an article in Chinese and this is not in the international version of the CMA's website.
The other is that confirms there has been no "giant magnetic storm", but only a "minor Geomagnetic storm. Nothing to worry about and thus nothing that could cause malfunction of satellites, GPS systems or power grids. And that's all.
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